An awful lot of digital ink has been spilled on Patrick Roys 2013-14 Colorado Avalanche this summer, a team that more or less defied woeful play at five-on-five by riding unsustainable shooting and save percentages. Ernie Banks Cubs Jersey . Largely because we have seen a model of this team before, many analysts are expecting some form of regression a€“ the 2011-12 Minnesota Wild and 2012-13 Toronto Maple Leafs have provided ample case studies in the importance of getting the right side of possession. Perhaps more accurately, they have provided lessons on why teams must not rely on volatile percentages to rack up wins. What makes this Colorado team interesting is two-fold. Firstly, theyre teeming with young and developing talent, which could help stave off that regression to a degree. Secondly, we have only seen one year of real success from this club. The season before, Colorado played to a 67-point pace and finished dead last in the Western Conference. Since we have data on teams dating back to 2007, its not particularly difficult to investigate relationships between sets of data. Correlations of subsequent seasons can tell us what kind of adjustments to make, if any, when trying to forecast future output. What I went ahead and did prior to this post was pull out Year 1 vs. Year 2 data for a variety of team-level even-strength numbers from 2007 to 2012 and dropped them in the table below. Repeatability is an r-squared number that tells us the percent of variance explained - the higher the r-squared number (up to 1.0), the more repeatable of a skill it is: Repeatability EV Shooting Percentage 0.00 EV Save Percentage 0.13 EV Goal For% 0.19 EV Fenwick% 0.33 EV Corsi% 0.38 EV Score-Adjusted Fenwick% (SAF%) 0.39 You are reading the above correctly. A teams even-strength shooting percentage over one year tells us absolutely nothing about how that team will shoot the following year. Save percentage is slightly more telling than shooting percentage, but ultimately, its a number youre going to want to heavily regress. As you go down the list, the correlations in data run tighter and the numbers dont need to be regressed as heavily. None of this bodes well for Colorado, a team that rode high percentages and carried terrible territorial control. One other note on the above - youll see that the r-squared between EV GoalFor% in the first year and EV GoalFor% in the subsequent year is 0.19. While EV GoalFor% is a better predictor of future EV GoalFor% than both EV Fenwick% and EV Corsi%, it is not a better predictor than EV Score-Adjusted Fenwick%. That said, lets look at some comparables for the Colorado Avalanche - teams that picked up 90 or more points (my random cut-off line separating average teams from good ones) who also carried sub-par possession numbers at even-strength. Well use equations generated for the year-one to year-two correlations to create an estimated number, and then compare it against the teams actual number. First, lets do the percentages at even-strength: Y1 EVSH% Est. Y2 EVSH% Actual Y2 EVSH% 2007 Pittsburgh 8.96% 7.89% 9.76% 2007 Montreal 8.73% 7.88% 8.23% 2007 Minnesota 8.39% 7.88% 7.50% 2008 Florida 8.35% 7.88% 7.71% 2008 Montreal 8.23% 7.88% 7.58% 2009 Colorado 8.84% 7.89% 7.93% 2010 Carolina 8.05% 7.88% 7.26% 2010 Dallas 8.72% 7.89% 7.62% 2010 Anaheim 7.79% 7.87% 7.99% 2013 Colorado 8.77% 7.89% ? AVERAGE 8.48% 7.88% 7.95% Its almost stunning how identical the expected year two and actual year two percentages are on both ends of the rink. The takeaway from this is simple: one year of shooting percentage data tells us absolutely nothing, and regressing it all the way to the league average will give us a much better forecast of whats to come. Y1 EVSV% Est. Y2 EVSV% Actual Y2EVSV% 2007 Pittsburgh 93.29% 92.55% 92.40% 2007 Montreal 92.53% 92.28% 92.27% 2007 Minnesota 92.25% 92.18% 92.70% 2008 Florida 93.27% 92.54% 93.13% 2008 Montreal 92.27% 92.19% 92.90% 2009 Colorado 92.62% 92.31% 91.35% 2010 Carolina 92.45% 92.25% 92.34% 2010 Dallas 92.49% 92.27% 92.05% 2010 Anaheim 92.32% 92.21% 91.66% 2013 Colorado 93.07% 92.47% ? AVERAGE 92.66% 92.33% 92.31% The same can be said for save percentage data - taking our year one data and pulling it back 87 per cent to the league average gives us a more accurate guess as to whats to come. Using that regression for forecasting purposes, expect Colorado to shoot around 7.89 per cent for next year at evens and stop around 92.47 per cent of the shots. Now, lets break away from shooting and save percentages and look at possession rates. We know Score-Adjusted Fenwick% is the most repeatable of these metrics. Lets repeat the above exercise with the same Colorado comparables, and try to pindown where Colorado will finish at evens this season. Ive included a fourth column in here to identify the change in points from Year 1 to Year 2. Y1 SAF% Est. Y2 SAF% Actual Y2 SAF% Points Change 2007 Pittsburgh 46.70% 48.05% 49.21% -3 2007 Montreal 47.22% 48.36% 47.56% -11 2007 Minnesota 47.77% 48.68% 47.39% -9 2008 Florida 46.18% 47.75% 45.66% -16 2008 Montreal 47.60% 48.58% 46.78% -5 2009 Colorado 46.33% 47.83% 46.38% -27 2010 Carolina 47.18% 48.34% 47.18% -9 2010 Dallas 47.60% 48.58% 47.60% -6 2010 Anaheim 45.46% 47.32% 45.46% -20 2013 Colorado 47.18% 48.34% ? ? AVERAGE 46.92% 48.18% 47.02% -11.78 You should first notice that regression seems less important with our possession numbers than the shooting/save percentages above. Thata€?s because possession is a repeatable skill - or in this case, the lack of possession is a repeatable skill. Every team that can be considered a comparable for Colorado 2013-14 was out-shot in Year 1 and Year 2 - in most cases, decisively. And, ita€?s impossible to ignore that column on the right, where every single percentage-good, possession-bad team of recent history saw a fall in the standings. The average fall for those nine teams was in the double digits, and the one team that didna€?t take a massive hit - 2007 Pittsburgh - improved their possession numbers by almost three full percentage points. Not only are those percentages running against the Avs, but they also go into next season missing their two best possession forwards from last season, with Paul Stastny signing in St. Louis and P.A. Parenteau traded to Montreal. Further, its difficult to project improved possession numbers when the Avalanche brain trust doesnt seem inclined to dig into possession-based analytics. This does not bode well for Patrick Roya€?s team. Ita€?s a virtual lock that their shooting and save percentages will climb down from their heights of last year, which means that their Goal% - last year, it was at 53.6 per cent - is in real trouble. The million dollar question is how far the Avs will fall - knocking them down by the average (-11.78) would likely still see them finish in the post-season, but their margin for error will be extremely tight this year. Brandon Morrow Cubs Jersey . In a matchup of teams battling head-to-head for the final playoff spot in Major League Soccers Western Conference, the Whitecaps run to the post-season took a hard hit when FC Dallas blew open a tie game with two goals in the final minutes for a 3-1 victory Saturday night. Chicago Cubs Store . But that changed when he committed a five-minute major penalty and helped pave the way for a comeback by the Philadelphia Flyers. Vincent Lecavalier scored at 2:45 of overtime and the Flyers rallied from a two-goal deficit for a 5-4 victory on Sunday. https://www.cheapcubs.com/ . Right-hander Todd Redmond took the loss. Jose Bautista hit his second home run of the spring. Here are a handful of tidbits from around camp: Hutchison impressive The Blue Jays are being cautious when talking about their young arms but internally, excitement is building over the way Drew Hutchison is looking and performing this spring.HOUSTON -- The Houston Rockets had trouble hitting shots and finding a rhythm through the first three quarters against New Orleans on Saturday night, doing just enough to hang with the Pelicans. In the fourth, the Rockets -- led by James Harden and Jeremy Lin for a second straight game -- were able to finish things off. Dwight Howard had 24 points and 18 rebounds, and Harden scored 11 of his 21 points in the fourth quarter in the Rockets 107-98 comeback victory. "It was winning time," Harden said. "I was struggling the first three quarters and couldnt find the rhythm when my teammates needed me the most. We got the ball moving and Jeremy made a couple of good threes. Chandler (Parsons) had a good put back and then Dwight got an and-one. Everybody picked up the intensity a little bit." It was the second straight game Houston rallied in the fourth for a win and marked the first time since December 2009 that the Rockets have won three straight games within the division. Houston beat San Antonio on Christmas and topped Memphis on Thursday night. "We didnt shoot it well," Houston coach Kevin McHale said. "I know at one time I looked up, I thought we were two for 19 from the three-point line. It felt like they made every three. They were 10 for 22. ... We found a way to win, but it was another in a long line of games that feel like you are pulling teeth." Howard was 10 of 12 from the floor, helping to keep Houston in the game through the first three quarters with 20 points in that span. "I just tried to play out of the double team," Howard said. "When they doubled, I tried to make the good play, and when they didnt double, I tried to make the better play for myself." Parsons added 19 points and seven rebounds, and Terrence Jones had 17 points and eight rebounds to help Houston win its third straight game and snap New Orleans winning streak at two. Lin had all 10 of his points in the fourth quarter after scoring 14 of his 18 points in the fourth against Memphis. The Rockets made three of five 3-point attempts in the fourth quaarter after going 3 of 21 from long range in the first three quarters. Andre Dawson Jersey. "Its definitely not the ideal plan or ideal strategy," Lin said. "Im thankful Coach McHale let me keep going. I was able to finally get a little bit of a rhythm in the last two games. I have to do a much, much better job and be more aggressive in the first three quarters." Houston was 25 of 32 from the free-throw line, while New Orleans was 6 of 8. "Anything I say is going to get me in trouble," New Orleans coach Monty Williams said about the free-throw difference. "OK, so lets just leave it at that. Thirty-two to eight." Ryan Anderson had 22 points and 12 rebounds for New Orleans. Anthony Davis added 18 points and 16 rebounds, and Tyreke Evans had 16 points and nine assists. "I think we really didnt execute down the stretch," Evans said. "It was a tough loss. I think we played hard and fought, but in the fourth quarter, our execution wasnt that good. They hit some big shots. ... They were shooting it from far out, and it kind of tough, but they made their shots, and we cant do anything about that." After New Orleans opened a 92-88 lead with 4:54 left on Davis alley-oop dunk, Jones started Houston on a game-ending 19-6 run with a three-point play. Following Davis jumper, Lin tied it at 94 with a 3-pointer with 3 1/2 minutes remaining. Then, Harden put the Rockets ahead for good with a 3-pointer to give with 3:14 remaining. "We were in it the whole game, and we were giving ourselves a chance to win the game," Davis said. "We tried to send a couple of guys at Dwight and give him different looks. He found Jeremy Lin in the corner for a three and then James came down and hit a three. They just made big shots, and we didnt execute at the end. We have to come out and know what were running and execute." NOTES: New Orleans guard Eric Gordon sat out his second straight game because of a right hip contusion. ... Houston forward Greg Smith missed his fourth straight game with a sprained right knee. ' ' '